First, the upshot is that none of Trump's four predecessors in losing the popular vote can be considered presidential successes by any objective historical evaluation. Their presidencies were largely failures or undistinguished, and it had a lot to do with the lack of popular support from the cloud that hung over their elections. Bush was the only one to win a second term, though barely, and as Dana Carvey observed in a skit a few years pack in which he played W.'s father, "that second term of was real victory lap." Nothing like ending eight years in the White House with an approval rating under 30%.
The other three were John Quincy Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes and Benjamin Harrison, not exactly fellows who top high school history teachers' lesson plans. Adams and Hayes actually had fewer electoral votes than their opponents as well as popular votes but were given the presidency through bargains (which many deemed "corrupt") hashed out in Congress by political bigwigs. An interesting side note is that three of the four presidential losers were related to past presidents (John Quincy was the son of John Adams, Harrison was the grandson of William Henry Harrison and W. of course was the son of H.W.).
The "Corrupt Bargain"
First was John Quincy Adams, the beneficiary of the "corrupt bargain" that gave him the presidency over Andrew Jackson, who took it away from him four years later. John Quincy's four years in the White House were so dour and unsuccessful that he observed after leaving the White House, "I have no plausible motive for wishing to live." As I observed in yesterday's post, a president has little power without the support of the people, and this was certainly the case with Adams. More so than any of the other three presidential losers, the public had overwhelmingly supported his opponent, and Congress largely ignored Adams' proposals as he kept the White House warm for Jackson.End of Reconstruction
Rutherford B. Hayes, by all accounts, was a man of great character and integrity, but the bargain that sent him to the presidency in 1877 had devastating consequences for the country, specifically African-Americans. After losing the popular vote to Samuel Tilden and trailing in the Electoral College 203-166, Hayes' supporters challenged the results by claiming black voters in the South had been prevented from voting (sound familiar?). Congress appointed a special Electoral Commission to settle the most controversial presidential election in American history, and a deal was reached to give Hayes the presidency in return for removing federal troops from the South that had been placed there during Reconstruction to preserve the rights of African-Americans. With federal intervention gone, white supremacists in the South quickly disenfranchised blacks and put in motion nearly 100 years of segregationist laws that would only end with the Civil Rights Movement. Like John Quincy Adams, the cloud that hung over Hayes' election paralyzed his presidency, and Congress largely ignored him. He wasn't even nominated by his own party for a second term.The Trouble with Tariffs
Benjamin Harrison provides perhaps the most interesting parallel to Trump in that both men espoused strong anti-open trade and anti-immigration policies (Harrison wanted to restrict Chinese immigration). Along with Bush (and now Trump), he lost the popular vote but won a majority of electoral votes without requiring any political shenanigans to put him in the White House. Without the cloud of a "corrupt bargain" hanging over him, he was able to take office in 1889 unencumbered by any major controversy. As Trump seems poised to do, he pushed through a protectionist policy based on high tariffs. His popularity nosedived when the tariffs led to higher prices that primarily burdened low-wage earners and farmers, and his Republican Party was shellacked in the mid-term elections, going from a 173-156 majority to a 235-88 minority (the Democrats can only dream of being that fortunate in two years). Unlike Hayes, he managed to get renominated to a second term but lost to Grover Cleveland, the man he beat (in the Electoral College at least) four years earlier.Unlike Trump, the previous four popular vote losers had significant political experience before arriving in the White House, but it seemed to do them little good. The fact they were unable to win over a plurality of voters likely betrayed a fundamental flaw in their political acumen or appeal to the public and/or cost them the public support to carry out their agenda. There is little reason to believe Trump will be any different, though it's probably safe to assume he won't leave the White House in four years, as Adams did, despairing about the desirability of death. More likely, he'll retreat to Trump Tower to begin planning the most beautiful presidential library ever constructed, before it's forced to file for bankruptcy.
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