My updated odds for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination

With the midterms behind us, it's time to get really serious about handicapping the 2020 Democratic presidential race. By early next year, we should start seeing a parade of candidates announcing their intention to at least "explore" a presidential campaign. For better or worse, the midterms offered no clear path for the the Democrats to follow in choosing a potential standard bearer. The moderate wing of the party will argue that the Democrats' success in taking back the House of Representatives came from winning swing districts with centrist candidates that appealed to independents and even Trump voters. The progressive wing will point out the manner in which moderate incumbent senators such as Joe Donnelly, Claire McCaskill and Heidi Heitkamp crashed and burned in Trump country, while progressive firebrands such as Beto O'Rourke, Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillium came much closer to victory.

I tend to agree with the progressives. While there's no overlooking the success of the moderate Dems in House races, the presidential race more clearly mirrors the statewide, winner-take-all Senate and gubernatorial contests, and by that standard, the results were clear: Democrats need to find a candidate with the capacity to both energize the party base and turn out new or apathetic voters in a big way. Candidates like McCaskill and Donnelly who try as hard as they can to run away from their party identification come election time can do neither, nor can they pick off enough Trump supporters to make a meaningful difference.

With that said, here's my top 10 picks for Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, along with 10 others to watch if the top tier should falter.

Elizabeth Warren, senator, Massachusetts

Odds: 5-1

Yeah, that ancestry test didn't go over quite as well as she would have hoped, but at least now the facts are out and I think it's less likely the issue will dog her campaign. She has the best chance of uniting the progressive and establishment wings of the party and is not shy about mixing it up with the likes of Trump, Mitch McConnell or corporate CEOs. Her prodigious fundraising skills will make her an instant contender.

Kamala Harris, senator, California

Odds: 7-1

The buzz around the freshman senator has continued to build over the past year, and her grilling of Cabinet and Supreme Court nominees has earned her plenty of fans on the left. The political betting markets seem to like her chances. Could she be the female version of Barack Obama in going from first-term senator to the White House?

Beto O'Rourke, Congressman, Texas

Odds: 8-1 

Losing the Texas Senate race actually makes it easier for O'Rourke to run for president, if he decides to take the plunge. His losing Senate campaign was a huge victory in earning him a national following; as history buffs will point out, the same thing happened with Abraham Lincoln after his Senate loss to Stephen Douglas in 1858. The biggest wild card is whether he will go for it after such a grueling Senate race; if he does, he could very well replicate Obama's meteoric rise from 2008.

Joe Biden, former vice president

Odds: 10-1

Age and the party's shift left would work against him, but if Dems decide they need to lock down the working class white vote in the Rust Belt, the former Veep would be the obvious choice. And in a crowded field that lacks an early front-runner, he would have an immediate advantage.

Bernie Sanders, senator, Vermont

Odds: 12-1

It's looking more and more like Bernie's time may have passed, but if he decides to run and can generate the same type of grass-roots support he did in 2016, watch out. If Biden decides not to run, Sanders would have a clear advantage on the name-recognition front, which could be a big deal in a crowded field.

Michael Bloomberg, former New York mayor

Odds: 15-1

Both the party establishment and Sanders progressives would likely line up against this former Republican, but with his billions and name recognition, Bloomberg has the potential to upend the Democratic race the way Trump did the Republican one in 2016. And his leadership on big issues such as gun violence would sway many liberal voters.

Amy Klobuchar, senator, Minnesota

Odds: 25-1

She was probably the most impressive Dem during the Kavanaugh hearings, and has the potential to appeal to both suburban women and Midwestern working class voters, two key voting blocs in 2020. If the party is not ready to go as far left as Warren and Harris want to take it, Klobuchar could be an appealing alternative.

Kirsten Gillibrand, senator, New York

Odds: 30-1

She appears stuck in the shadow of Warren and Harris at this point, and her rapid transformation from centrist to liberal firebrand will likely weigh her down with a flip-flopping reputation, but Gillibrand's leadership in the #MeToo movement could provide a path to break through should she decide to run. There's also the irony of her holding Hillary Clinton's former Senate seat.

John Hickenlooper, governor, Colorado

Odds: 40-1

What this field desperately needs is a candidate far outside the Washington beltway who can run as an outsider with a proven record of getting things done (sort of like Bill Clinton in 1992, absent the baggage). Hickenlooper would definitely be a long shot, particularly as a centrist, but at least he would give voters something different to chew on. 

Cory Booker, senator, New Jersey

Odds: 50-1

There's already way too many senators on this list who will have little to run on other than their fierce opposition to Trump. Booker would inject the field with a dose of energy and youth, and draw some easy comparisons to Obama, but his "I am Spartacus" movement at the Kavanaugh hearings leads me to believe his candidacy would be more style than substance. 

Others to watch: Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, former Attorney General Eric Holder, former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy, Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley.

Happy Presidents Day! Why it's one of my favorite holidays

Presidents Day may be the only holiday of the year that is famous for its lack of any real tradition. Thanksgiving is about giving thanks for life's blessings with family and loved ones while sharing a sumptuous feast; Christmas and Easter both have deep religious and secular traditions, ranging from the birth and resurrection of Christ to toys under the tree and Easter egg hunts; New Year's Day is about fresh starts and college football; Independence Day is about flags, parades and fireworks; Memorial Day is marked by solemn graveside remembrances of those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country; Labor Day is a day for picnics and barbecues; and MLK Day has its share of community events that pay homage to Dr. King's legacy and the ongoing struggle for racial justice and civil rights for all.

But there is no unifying tradition or practice to celebrate the holiday held in honor of Washington and Lincoln's birthdays. There's nothing distinctive about how we mark Presidents Day. Except in my household. The history buff in me has steadily turned Presidents Day into one of my favorite holidays of the year. We now have an annual tradition of putting together our Presidents Day floor puzzle (I don't plan to update it to include our current president). Later in the day, I cook a meal featuring one of Honest Abe's favorite dishes. Last year, it was Chicken Fricassee. This year, we're going with bacon-basted militia chicken from my "Abraham Lincoln in the Kitchen" cookbook, followed by one of Mary Lincoln's almond cake recipes (or as close to it as as the book can come). And I'll surely sneak in an article or video or two celebrating Lincoln and Washington's legacies.

Of course, there's a bit of self-deprecating humor in the fact that I get myself so excited each year about a holiday most of the country simply treats as an excuse to sleep in and maybe catch up on some household chores, or a sale or two at the mall. It gives my wife and daughters one more reason to see the inner nerd in me and laugh about how different it is to live with someone who actually begins the morning with a cry of "Happy Presidents Day!" that would rival the best "Merry Christmas!"

But in all seriousness, Presidents Day really shouldn't be just a day for history buffs and Lincoln nerds to celebrate. The fact we live in what is widely regarded as the greatest, most powerful nation on earth is a testament in large part to the role Washington played in establishing a constitutional democracy that ultimately placed power in the hands of the people, and creating a presidential model that was both strong in leadership but limited in the absolute power it could wield. The tradition he established of presidents serving only two terms was a strong statement that our country would never descend into the grip of authoritarianism that has plagued so many nations over the years. And the holiday is also a testament to the role Lincoln played in preserving the union during its greatest crisis and ultimately ending the stain of slavery that prevented it from living out the principles of equality and liberty that were espoused in its founding.

These were also two men who, despite living in times that were generally much more course, unjust and cruel than anything we experience today, exemplified dignity, compassion and respect for their fellow humans. Washington established his legend as a general fighting wars but spoke of his first wish being "to see the whole world in peace, and the inhabitants of it as one band of brothers, striving who could contribute most to the happiness of mankind." Lincoln led our nation through its bloodiest war, where hatred and inhumanity reached levels never seen on this continent before or since. But instead of preaching vengeance for his adversaries who had torn the nation apart in their selfish quest to preserve one of western civilization's greatest evils, he spoke of a future of healing and redemption. "With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation's wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan, to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations."

At a time when the words emanating from the White House are far different from those uttered by two of our greatest presidents who knew the travesty of war and hate all too well, my first wish on this Presidents Day is to see all Americans take time to ponder what these two men meant to the lives we lead today, and what their words and examples should mean for our future. 

Great presidential quotes to get us through the Trump Presidency

The last time our elected leaders in Washington put the right to life ahead of the right to bear military-style assault rifles. 

"I think to hide behind the right of sports people to justify the types of unconscionable behavior that takes place every single day on the streets of this country is an unforgivable abuse of our common right to be hunters. ... It's amazing to me that we even have to have this debate. How long are we going to allow this to go on. ... This is not a complicated issue. This is a laydown, no-brainer, and the Congress must not walk away from it."

-- Bill Clinton, while advocating for the 1994 assault weapons ban

Happy Presidents Day! With the basic principle of truth under assault in this country like never before, these simple words from our first president are worth remembering today, and always. 

"Truth will ultimately prevail where there is pains to bring it to light." -- George Washington

In honor of our greatest president's birthday, a quote that rings especially true today, when the current occupant of the White House traffics in never-ending lies and demagoguery in an effort to unravel our freedoms for his own benefit. 

"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." -- Abraham Lincoln

After a long hiatus, I'm reviving my "Great Presidential Quotes to get us through the Trump Presidency" blog post.

Now that I'm immersed in Ron Chernow's 1,000-page Grant biography, this seems like a good time to turn to our most underrated president (and greatest general). This quote in particular seems fitting in light of the current president's efforts to attack others over matters of patriotism and support for the military, despite the fact he never sacrificed a thing for his nation. Somehow, I doubt that Grant ever suffered a case of bone spurs, though he did clearly suffer a lonesome heart from his wistful letters to Julia Dent (winning the Civil War was a piece of cake compared with winning her heart in marriage.)

"I suffer the mortification of seeing myself attacked right and left by people at home professing patriotism and love of country who never heard the whistle of a hostile bullet. I pity them and the nation dependent on such for its existence. I am thankful, however that, though such people make a great noise, the masses are not like them." -- Ulysses S. Grant

“Knowledge will forever govern ignorance, and a people who mean to be their own governors, must arm themselves with the power knowledge gives. A popular government without popular information or the means of acquiring it, is but a prologue to a farce or a tragedy or perhaps both.” -- James Madison 

"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence." -- John Adams

"Of course, there are dangers in religious freedom and freedom of opinion. But to deny these rights is worse than dangerous, it is absolutely fatal to liberty." -- Harry S Truman

"To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public. Nothing but the truth should be spoken about him or any one else. But it is even more important to tell the truth, pleasant or unpleasant, about him than about any one else."  -- Theodore Roosevelt

“Let me speak plainly: The United States of America is and must remain a nation of openness to people of all beliefs. Our very unity has been strengthened by this pluralism. That's how we began; this is how we must always be. The ideals of our country leave no room whatsoever for intolerance, anti-Semitism, or bigotry of any kind -- none. The unique thing about America is a wall in our Constitution separating church and state. It guarantees there will never be a state religion in this land, but at the same time it makes sure that every single American is free to choose and practice his or her religious beliefs or to choose no religion at all. Their rights shall not be questioned or violated by the state." -- Ronald Reagan

"It is rather for us the living, we here be dedicated to the great task remaining before us—that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they here gave the last full measure of devotion—that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain, that this nation shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth." -- Abraham Lincoln

"Freedom has many difficulties and democracy is not perfect, but we have never had to put a wall up to keep our people in, to prevent them from leaving us." -- John F. Kennedy

"My first wish ... is to see the whole world in peace, and the inhabitants of it as one band of brothers, striving who could contribute most to the happiness of mankind." -- George Washington

"Governments can err, Presidents can make mistakes, but the immortal Dante tells us, that Divine justice weighs the sins of the cold-blooded and the sins of the warm-hearted in different scales. Better the occasional faults of a government that lives in the spirit of charity than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference."-- Franklin Roosevelt

“A little patience, and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their spells dissolve, and the people, recovering their true sight, restore their government to its true principles.” -- Thomas Jefferson

Why I won't be watching the Super Bowl today ... or perhaps ever again

You would have been hard-pressed to find anyone who loved football more than me growing up. My favorite memory from Christmas Eve 1977 is not what Santa delivered that night but what the Oakland Raiders delivered that afternoon, their legendary double-overtime, "Ghost to the Post" playoff victory over the Baltimore Colts. When I was an altar boy in the 1980s at my Catholic church, I was the only one who volunteered to work the 7 a.m. Mass, not because I was an early riser (I wasn't) but because I wanted to get home in plenty of time to catch the 10 o'clock kickoffs. To this day, the biggest moments of the 1981 (Raiders vs. Eagles) and 1985 (49ers vs. Dolphins) Super Bowls remain etched in my mind as if they happened yesterday.

Up until two years ago, I had watched nearly ever Super Bowl played since 1978, from the opening kickoff through the iconic halftime shows and postgame celebrations. But I decided that year to stage my first Super Bowl boycott. Having watched the Frontline documentary "Game of Denial," I had become disgusted with the way the NFL had placed its profits and popularity above the safety of its players, covering up the concussion crisis and allowing some of its legends to wither away in misery as fans forgot about them and turned their attention to a new generation of stars. I became equally disgusted with fans who still seemed preoccupied with their team's next roster move rather than the health of the players they watched each Sunday. I coined my boycott #SeeSelmaInstead, journeying with my family to an empty Walnut Creek theater to watch the riveting civil rights movie about Martin Luther King and the other civil rights activists who put their lives at risk to regain voting rights for blacks in the South (only to have the 49ers' Colin Kaepernick declare a half century later that voting doesn't matter for blacks but taking a knee during the national anthem does).

Last year, my family took a trip to the California Academy of Sciences on Super Sunday to see Claude, the center's albino alligator (#SeeClaudeInstead). And however I choose to spend this afternoon, it won't be watching the New England Patriots take on the Atlanta Falcons, interspersed by a neverending series of illogical commercials and Lady Gaga's halftime show.

It's not because I've sworn off football altogether. I haven't. I watched my share of Raiders games again this year and caught bits and pieces of a playoff game or two over the past few weeks. My disgust with the league's handling of the concussion crisis hasn't waned, especially after watching  the movie "Concussion," which was even more damning than "League of Denial." But I don't believe the game is intrinsically flawed or immoral. The reality is that it has rescued countless Americans from poverty over the years and provided them lives they otherwise could only have dreamed about. Even for the vast majority of players who don't make it to the NFL, it has provided a pathway to college educations and taught them the values of self-discipline and teamwork. Its riches have been shared with charities such as the United Way, which have helped transform communities for the better. My feeling is that as long as its players know and understand the risks of playing the game to their health, and are willing to accept them, it is not my place to judge whether the game should be played or not. Sadly, up until a few years ago, that knowledge was hidden from them at every level, as well as the fans who support the game, in the most reprehensible fashion, and the NFL still has not been held to account for its sins.

But the primary reason I'll skip this year's Super Bowl is not so much the concussion crisis but what the game has come to represent and say about us as a nation, our decision to turn what should be national distractions into national obsessions while remaining blissfully unaware of and disengaged from the issues that affect our daily lives. As passionate as I was about the game growing up, with age came perspective, and a desire to funnel my passions toward the things in life that really matter. There was a time in my childhood where a heartbreaking loss by the Raiders or the 49ers could tarnish my day or week, and seriously affect my mood. Those days have long since passed. I now see football for what it is, a casual diversion from the serious aspects of life, but not a replacement.

I get the feeling, however, that for many, it is the serious things in life that have become the unwanted diversion as we spend more and more time fixated on the things that don't really matter, whether it's the Super Bowl, our favorite reality television show or deciding the next selfie to shoot. It's been said, not entirely jokingly, that football has become our national religion, and the Super Bowl serves as the holiest day of the year for that religion. I wouldn't so mind a national holiday centered on a sporting event if I felt that people paid as much attention to the important things in life as they do to the Super Bowl, if they cared as much about the fortunes of our society and world as they do about the fortunes of their favorite team.

Muhammad Ali's daughter put it better than me at the Women's March in Washington, D.C., a couple weeks ago:

"So many people binge watch television for hours and hours. They're in their telephones, they're on their computers on Facebook for hours ... they'll stand up for their sports teams, they know every rule of the NBA and the NFL, but they don't know how local government works."

Perhaps no event represents that sad social reality more than Super Bowl Sunday. We'll spend six hours or more today obsessing over every play, every commercial, every aspect of Lady Gaga's performance. And when it's over, we'll debate it all endlessly on Facebook or Twitter, then start gearing up for Spring Training or the next episode of Dancing with the Stars. And we won't think twice about whether that Trump Muslim ban is indeed Constitutional, because very few of us really understand what the Constitution is or what it represents. It's not a falsehood to say we know more about the rules governing our favorite sport than the rules governing our nation. 

Tom Brady got a lot of attention last year for placing one of Trump's red "Make America  Great Again" caps in his locker cubicle. So in that vein, here's my opinion of when America will truly be great again. When a majority of its citizens pay as much attention to any of the following as they do to Brady trying to win his fifth Super Bowl ring: The plight of the 8-year-old Syrian refugee banned from coming to this country because she's deemed a terrorist threat; or 20-plus first graders massacred in their classroom because of our nation's lack of any sensible gun laws; or those whose lives could be at risk if they lose their health insurance under the Affordable Care Act; or the fact that Climate Change is real and threatening the future of the planet, and our children's future along with it. 

When a majority of those who gather for their Super Bowl parties today show they care as much about any of that or the countless other critical issues facing our society, I'll be happy to join them again in watching the game I grew up loving on its biggest day, because we all need a diversion from the serious side of life. The problem is when that diversion becomes an excuse to ignore the world around you. I believe a big reason the nation is so polarized today is not simply that we don't understand one another or see the critical issues differently; it's that we simply have different priorities: There are those who value knowledge and truth and are engaged with the hard realities of society, and there are those who simply don't give a damn. They will elect a president more for what they saw him do on Celebrity Apprentice than what he knows about our nation's problems and how to solve them.

To many, such talk probably comes across as more liberal arrogance, so-called intellectuals looking down on the masses. But I don't see it that way at all. Differing ideologies and views on how to make a more perfect union, from both the right and left, are healthy and important when it comes from a place of basic information and understanding of our reality, traditions and system of governance. A democracy can only function if its society is informed, and too many in this country have made it clear that they just don't give a damn about being informed, because obsessing over football or Celebrity Apprentice is just so much easier and more fun. And then every four years, they decide to vote out of ignorance, or bitterness, or hatred, or an acerbic Tweet, before shifting their focus back to our national religion. In so doing, they've become pawns of the political and corporate elite, manipulated by a clever Tweet or sound bite, deceived by falsehoods that could be easily disproven by a little research, tricked into consistently voting against their own interests and blaming the wrong people for our flawed state of affairs. 

How many football fans will yell at their television screens today, voicing every passion they can muster, only to turn silent on Monday morning to the myriad topics of national concern that demand our attention? How many will be able to explain in exhaustive detail the rule behind every penalty flag thrown on the field, but will wake up Monday morning knowing little or nothing about the rules that govern our land and protect our rights? How many will celebrate a player's game-changing touchdown today, or condemn his ill-timed turnover, with screams of joy and frustration, but not show an ounce of compassion for him when he's diagnosed with CTE in a decade or two? The answers to those questions also provide the answer to why this lifelong football fan will be skipping the Super Bowl again this year. 

Scorched earth or tactical retreat? The decision facing Democrats

The plight of the Democratic Party today reminds me a bit of the opening crawl for my favorite of the original Star Wars films, The Empire Strikes Back. "It is a dark time for the Rebellion" can easily be replaced with "It is a dark time for the Democrats."

When the film was first released, that crawl came as a jolt, particularly in the wake of the triumphant end to the first movie. In the same vein, few could have predicted this state of affairs for Democrats six months ago, when many predicted it would be they controlling all the levers of power in Washington following Barack Obama's groundbreaking presidency and the many seeming meltdowns of Donald Trump's campaign.

Now Democrats face a stark choice that also echoes the Battle of Hoth at the beginning of the Empire Strikes Back. Adopt a "scorched earth" policy in opposing every element of Donald Trump's radical and increasingly unhinged agenda, even though they lack the votes in Congress to stop much of that agenda without Republican help. Or stage a tactical retreat, picking battles carefully where they have a chance to garner public, and hence Republican, support, while ceding the ground (such as in the Supreme Court nomination) where the odds are heavily stacked against them. Instead of focusing on stopping Trump now, this plan would look largely toward regrouping and building the legislative muscle they will need to regain control of Congress and the Presidency down the road, where they can really make inroads.

Any Star Wars fan knows what the Rebels chose in The Empire Strikes Back. Outmanned and outgunned, they chose tactical retreat. The Battle of Hoth wasn't about defeating the Empire, it was about escaping in one piece in order to regroup and fight another day, while inflicting whatever damage they could.

Of course, parallels between science fiction and the reality of today's world only go so far. Trump is  already proving himself to be so dangerous to world and national security, and long-held American values, that a strong argument can be made that the Democratic Party has a moral obligation to oppose him with all its might on all fronts. And it's not outside the realm of possibility that such a strategy could work. A president's power ultimately hinges on popular approval, and it's clear after two weeks that Trump is still deeply unpopular with much of the American electorate, and perhaps growing more so by the day. Republicans are wary of challenging him so early in his presidency for fear that it will threaten their chances of working with him to unravel much of Obama's legacy. But they also need to be wary of remaining silent while millions of Americans increasingly express alarm over his words and actions.

But the tactical retreat strategy could actually be more effective right now in containing Trump's right-wing radicalism, in that it gives Democrats a better chance of enlisting at least such measure of Republican support on issues where he is clearly outside the mainstream views of both parties or the American people. By going scorched earth, it's likely the polarization in Congress will grow even worse, and Republicans will become so incensed that they'll side with Trump even on matters where they're not fully in agreement. As a hypothetical, if Democrats extend Republicans an olive branch by agreeing not to filibuster Trump's Supreme Court pick, Neil Gorsuch, perhaps they can extract some concessions in working to roll back the draconian Muslim ban or moderate Republican attempts to undo ObamaCare. Of course, there's also the risk that such concessions will net them nothing, and Republicans will continue to milk their majority control of Congress for all it's worth, placing party above country.

Which way should the Democrats go? I honestly don't know, as either course is fraught with risk and potential. But regardless, they need to start looking to 2018 and 2020 right now to figure out a strategy for winning back at least one of the levers of power in Washington. Until that happens, it is the American people and the courts who will probably have to do the heavy lifting in restraining Trump. Democrats' focus will quickly need to shift to finding a way to connect with red and swing state voters that they've increasingly alienated over the past decade. While all the focus may be on the fights in Washington right now, this war will ultimately be won on the campaign trail and in the minds of voters in two and four years.

Until then, Democrats might be wise to heed the advice -- at least to some degree -- of a sage Jedi Knight from another Star Wars film in deciding their next move, "You can't win. But there are alternatives to fighting."