My updated odds for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination

With the midterms behind us, it's time to get really serious about handicapping the 2020 Democratic presidential race. By early next year, we should start seeing a parade of candidates announcing their intention to at least "explore" a presidential campaign. For better or worse, the midterms offered no clear path for the the Democrats to follow in choosing a potential standard bearer. The moderate wing of the party will argue that the Democrats' success in taking back the House of Representatives came from winning swing districts with centrist candidates that appealed to independents and even Trump voters. The progressive wing will point out the manner in which moderate incumbent senators such as Joe Donnelly, Claire McCaskill and Heidi Heitkamp crashed and burned in Trump country, while progressive firebrands such as Beto O'Rourke, Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillium came much closer to victory.

I tend to agree with the progressives. While there's no overlooking the success of the moderate Dems in House races, the presidential race more clearly mirrors the statewide, winner-take-all Senate and gubernatorial contests, and by that standard, the results were clear: Democrats need to find a candidate with the capacity to both energize the party base and turn out new or apathetic voters in a big way. Candidates like McCaskill and Donnelly who try as hard as they can to run away from their party identification come election time can do neither, nor can they pick off enough Trump supporters to make a meaningful difference.

With that said, here's my top 10 picks for Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, along with 10 others to watch if the top tier should falter.

Elizabeth Warren, senator, Massachusetts

Odds: 5-1

Yeah, that ancestry test didn't go over quite as well as she would have hoped, but at least now the facts are out and I think it's less likely the issue will dog her campaign. She has the best chance of uniting the progressive and establishment wings of the party and is not shy about mixing it up with the likes of Trump, Mitch McConnell or corporate CEOs. Her prodigious fundraising skills will make her an instant contender.

Kamala Harris, senator, California

Odds: 7-1

The buzz around the freshman senator has continued to build over the past year, and her grilling of Cabinet and Supreme Court nominees has earned her plenty of fans on the left. The political betting markets seem to like her chances. Could she be the female version of Barack Obama in going from first-term senator to the White House?

Beto O'Rourke, Congressman, Texas

Odds: 8-1 

Losing the Texas Senate race actually makes it easier for O'Rourke to run for president, if he decides to take the plunge. His losing Senate campaign was a huge victory in earning him a national following; as history buffs will point out, the same thing happened with Abraham Lincoln after his Senate loss to Stephen Douglas in 1858. The biggest wild card is whether he will go for it after such a grueling Senate race; if he does, he could very well replicate Obama's meteoric rise from 2008.

Joe Biden, former vice president

Odds: 10-1

Age and the party's shift left would work against him, but if Dems decide they need to lock down the working class white vote in the Rust Belt, the former Veep would be the obvious choice. And in a crowded field that lacks an early front-runner, he would have an immediate advantage.

Bernie Sanders, senator, Vermont

Odds: 12-1

It's looking more and more like Bernie's time may have passed, but if he decides to run and can generate the same type of grass-roots support he did in 2016, watch out. If Biden decides not to run, Sanders would have a clear advantage on the name-recognition front, which could be a big deal in a crowded field.

Michael Bloomberg, former New York mayor

Odds: 15-1

Both the party establishment and Sanders progressives would likely line up against this former Republican, but with his billions and name recognition, Bloomberg has the potential to upend the Democratic race the way Trump did the Republican one in 2016. And his leadership on big issues such as gun violence would sway many liberal voters.

Amy Klobuchar, senator, Minnesota

Odds: 25-1

She was probably the most impressive Dem during the Kavanaugh hearings, and has the potential to appeal to both suburban women and Midwestern working class voters, two key voting blocs in 2020. If the party is not ready to go as far left as Warren and Harris want to take it, Klobuchar could be an appealing alternative.

Kirsten Gillibrand, senator, New York

Odds: 30-1

She appears stuck in the shadow of Warren and Harris at this point, and her rapid transformation from centrist to liberal firebrand will likely weigh her down with a flip-flopping reputation, but Gillibrand's leadership in the #MeToo movement could provide a path to break through should she decide to run. There's also the irony of her holding Hillary Clinton's former Senate seat.

John Hickenlooper, governor, Colorado

Odds: 40-1

What this field desperately needs is a candidate far outside the Washington beltway who can run as an outsider with a proven record of getting things done (sort of like Bill Clinton in 1992, absent the baggage). Hickenlooper would definitely be a long shot, particularly as a centrist, but at least he would give voters something different to chew on. 

Cory Booker, senator, New Jersey

Odds: 50-1

There's already way too many senators on this list who will have little to run on other than their fierce opposition to Trump. Booker would inject the field with a dose of energy and youth, and draw some easy comparisons to Obama, but his "I am Spartacus" movement at the Kavanaugh hearings leads me to believe his candidacy would be more style than substance. 

Others to watch: Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, former Attorney General Eric Holder, former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy, Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley.