The Trump presidency: What the next four years will bring

The United States has never had four consecutive two-term presidencies. Donald Trump's won't be the first.

Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama each served a full two terms as president, the first time that's happened consecutively since Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe in the early 1800s. That streak ended when John Quincy Adams, who was handed the presidency despite losing the popular vote by 10 percentage points to Andrew Jackson, was trounced by Jackson four years later.

I don't see Hillary Clinton re-emerging in four years to avenge her loss to Trump. Her political career is over. And Trump's presidency could take many twists and turns over the next four years, some more disastrous or benign for the country than others. But the perfect alignment of forces that led to his election in 2016 (a populist movement that re-energized white working class voters plus a deeply unpopular opponent whom he successfully smeared with lies and half-truths along with razor-thin victories in key swing states) will not, in my opinion, repeat itself.

I see four likely outcomes for Trump and the nation over the next four years, only one of which gives him a plausible path to re-election (then again, I'm the one who boldly predicted days before the election that Clinton would win in a landslide, so who knows?)

• First, my most unlikely scenario. Trump will avoid major controversy or crisis during his presidency (largely due to luck than any skill on his part), tone down his most radical, divisive proposals and largely benefit from the strong economy that the Obama administration left in his hands. He won't be able to deliver on most of his promises, but a good number of voters really won't care once they realize that things like building a wall are unnecessary and that there are other jobs to replace the ones that were outsourced. He'll run for a second term, and depending on whom the Democrats nominate, maybe even have a chance of winning it. I give this about a 10% likelihood of happening.
• Trump will prove totally inept as president, be dogged by personal scandals and ultimately be impeached, or resign, as he alienates himself from both political parties. I give this about a 20% likelihood.
• Trump will muddle through his four years, accomplishing little and growing more divisive in the process. Many voters who supported him will grow weary of his bombast and incendiary conduct. He will see the writing on the wall and not bother to run for a second term, railing against a rigged system and boasting that he can get a lot more done for America by rededicating himself to his business empire. I put this at a 30% likelihood.
• Largely the second scenario, but in this one Trump will nevertheless seek a second term, hoping to energize the same base that propelled him to victory this time around, blaming all his failures on the Washington swamp he was unable to drain due to no fault of his own. Republican voters, though, will see the writing on the wall and deny him the nomination. Whom they nominate instead is anyone's guess, but it won't be anyone who ran and lost in 2016. Probably a fresh-faced governor far removed from the dysfunction of Washington. This, in my opinion, is the most likely scenario. I put it at 40%.

A big question for me is what will happen in Congress over the next four years. Will the polarization and lack of bipartisanship persist, with Democrats trading places with Republicans as the Party of No? Or will Trump's unpopularity among a large faction of Republicans push both parties to find some much-needed common ground to thwart his more dangerous impulses? My guess is it will fall somewhere in between. Early in his administration, Trump and the Republican leadership will focus on the areas where they agree (such as repealing Obamacare) and try to undo as much of Obama's legacy as possible, largely skirting around their differences. But those differences will become harder and harder to ignore as his presidency progresses, and at some point there will be a major split. But if the Republicans succeed in tearing up some of Obama's legacy in health care, financial reform and other areas (which is very much an open question as it will take only three Republican defectors in the Senate to curtail any of those efforts, not to mention Democratic filibusters), the Democrats will be much more interested in trying to exploit any rift between Trump and the Republicans for their own political gain rather than team up with congressional Republicans. 

There has been only one time in American history where a president elected in his own right was denied the nomination of his party for a second term, Franklin Pierce in 1852 (a handful of others were denied the nomination after becoming president upon the death of their predecessor). I'm predicting Trump will become the second. Then again, I never saw him getting this far. It will be a very interesting four years.